Sunday, October 23, 2016

Georgia early vote analysis - 10/23/16

I downloaded the Georgia early voting data fresh as of 10/22/16 and made a dashboard using Tableau Public (data scrubbed in Excel).

Some interest things popped out, like a lot of counties that are strongly Republican (over 70% Romney support in 2012), are about a third of the 2012 vote total already, compared to 16% overall for the state. Generally, the biggest bubbles (current vote vs 2012 vote total) are concentrated in North Georgia.

Strangely, Ben Hill, which was 42% Obama and 57% Romney, has reached 28% of its 2012 vote total. I wonder what's going on. It would be nice if I had the voter file to do person level analysis.


An interactive version of the picture is below.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Georgia early voting analysis - 10/22/16

I grabbed the absentee file from Georgia's site, dated 10/21/16 10:45PM, and ran some county analysis on the vote.

I followed the tutorial here to combine CSV files.

1. Copy the address of the extracted zip file
2. Go to CMD and type CD and paste the copied address
3. Type "copy *.csv combine.csv"
4. In Excel, delete redundant headers and analyze away

Focusing on Ballot Status=A (accepted), 538,893 Georgians have voted already. The top counties are tallied below. Fulton got off to a very strong start and has been tapering off. Most other counties in general are ticking up as the week passed. There should be a surge Saturday.

<=10/16 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21 Total
County
FULTON 5,409 12,044 11,458 11,814 9,999 8,596 59,320
DEKALB 4,140 8,165 6,968 6,448 7,007 7,420 40,148
COBB 6,422 3,747 4,723 4,215 4,576 4,355 28,038
FORSYTH 1,191 3,731 3,239 3,304 3,799 4,267 19,531
GWINNETT 4,471 2,367 2,024 2,260 2,640 2,448 16,210
CLAYTON 767 2,699 2,604 2,346 2,566 2,595 13,577
FAYETTE 711 2,209 2,311 2,328 2,345 2,644 12,548
HENRY 926 2,185 2,186 2,050 2,272 2,482 12,101
PAULDING 950 1,723 1,615 1,792 1,969 2,415 10,464
COLUMBIA 902 1,930 1,739 1,628 1,773 2,042 10,014
HALL 999 1,759 1,548 1,622 1,783 1,985 9,696

<=10/16 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21
County
FULTON 9.6% 12.5% 12.4% 12.6% 10.3% 8.4%
DEKALB 7.3% 8.5% 7.5% 6.9% 7.2% 7.2%
COBB 11.4% 3.9% 5.1% 4.5% 4.7% 4.2%
FORSYTH 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2%
GWINNETT 7.9% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4%
CLAYTON 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
FAYETTE 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6%
HENRY 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4%
PAULDING 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4%
COLUMBIA 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0%
HALL 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%